In July this year, the Indian consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.36%, higher than previously expected, also compared with the 1.46% in June rebounded sharply. 46% of India's basket of consumer goods is spent on food. The price of tomatoes in food is the most obvious: tomato prices rose from 27% in June rose sharply to 138% in July, for the July CPI growth contributed about 0.6 percentage points.
Tomatoes, potatoes and onions have a "holy triangle" in Indian cooking, and can be used as a base for several curries and snacks when mixed with spices. Indian government data show that three quarters of Indian families have the habit of eating tomatoes. However, the poor harvest conditions and the lack of refrigeration facilities, the harvest rate of tomato harvest as high as 16%.
Indian food Belt
Puri (Bhel Puri). It is an Indian snack made from tomatoes, onions, rice granules, slender fried noodles, lentils, pink potatoes, peanuts, parsley and trompanic sweet and sour sauce and peppers.
According to Bloomberg, under the background of global agricultural costs, India's lower technical efficiency and nearly 1.3 billion population have raised food prices and further boosted inflation. Which makes India in the world "unique."
Citigroup Indian economists Samiran Chakraborty and Anurag Jha argue that the shortage of tomatoes caused by heavy rain in India is the main cause of soaring prices.
In the minutes of the Indian central bank meeting scheduled for Wednesday (August 16), central bank governor Urjit Patel said the sharp drop in food prices was abnormal and was vulnerable to upward pressure some time ago. In addition to the normal rainy season, the decline in food prices can continue to need more hard data support.
On the other hand, Bloomberg pointed out that the CPI is mainly affected by seasonal factors. In addition to the new rents of government employees, the impact of food and household gasoline will gradually weaken in the coming months.
India's central bank will cut its repo rate from 6.25% to 6% this month to meet the urgent need for increased private sector investment. According to most economists, this is perhaps the last time the Bank of India cut interest rates by the end of 2018, and inflation is expected to accelerate by a 4% medium-term goal.
However, the appreciation of the Indian rupee, lower oil prices, agricultural reform and expansion of the negative output gap will allow inflation levels facing downward pressure, therefore, Bloomberg believes that the Indian central bank will be in December this year or again in February next year to cut interest rates.
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